PRICES ARE FALLING!

The trends are clear! Products and services are becoming so cheap that the time one has to 'work' in order to obtain them, is becoming negligable! Already now, the cost of administration of telephone calls outweighs the revenue. There are numerous examples. Prices of PCs are falling rapidly, much software can be obtained for free, while free Internet access and hosting services have been around for some years.

WHY ARE PRICES FALLING?

On-going innovation, global competition and progress in technology, management techniques, organizational methods and ways of planning and creating things, all this jointly drives down prices to ever lower levels, to the extent that it is more lucrative to earn money by printing advertising on the packaging than by selling the item itself. It is the joint result of all our efforts over many and many years!

IS THIS A UTOPIAN DREAM?

Would you believe me if I predicted that within two decades, we will live in a free world?

CONSIDER THIS:

Who would have believed, say, a few centuries ago, that one day only a small percentage of people would work in agriculture, while many people would use cars and planes to move from one place to another, just for fun? Who would have believed, say, only one hundred years ago, that one day more people would work in services than in agriculture, mining and manufacturing combined, while people would spend most of their time watching TV, for free? Who is prepared to believe today that, within two decades, people will only need to trade in a small part of dayly time in order to obtain any item or service that springs to mind?

DRAW THE CONCLUSION:

If money, work, contracts, onwership, etc., all lose the importance they are given today by those who control us, the world will change quite radically.

GOVERNMENT WILL FADE AWAY!

As prices are falling and national borders become obsolete, the whole concept of government gets out of step with modern times, and with it concepts such as money, trade, employment, contracts, ownership privileges, etc.!

COMMUNISM HAS PROVEN TO BE A FAILURE!

Equality is the motto under which marxism, communism, socialism and many other types of government operate. Such government control has clearly proven to be a failure, both in economic and in many other respects.

The above-mentioned ongoing price falls are happening DESPITE such politics, and more products and services come into reach of the poor because of falling prices, rather than through government control. Just look at how big a part of the price of everything you buy now is tax. Add administration and other costs imposed by regulations. Take all that away and many things become more affordable for the poor.

One problem is that governments have made so many people dependent. I foresee a gradual but continued fall in prices making governments less and less relevant. I foresee a shift in investors' focus from profit to appreciation.

THE SHIFT IN EMPLOYMENT

If people do no longer work on the land, how will people be fed? That's the question the farmer asked. The farmer believed that only people who worked on the land did "real" work. "All other activities do not bring any meat on the table", he said. Today, only a small percentage of people work on the land, yet there is food in abundance.

What if nobody wants to work? In some respects, that's a strange hypothesis. Why do people do something? Many people do voluntary work. Few people stay in bed all day, we all like to do things. What is 'work' anyway? What some people do, who follow their ambitions, may not be regarded by everyone as 'work', but look at it this way:

The farmer said to his son: "All these cityfolks are talking smooth, but talk does not put any meat on the table!" We now know, of course, that the son went to the city to earn vastly more money than his father did. But one century back, this still was a big argument.

Some decades ago, we saw the same argument used by the industrial worker who said to his son: "Come and work with me in the factory. Forget about finding work in services, they do not produce anything you can put on the table."

In the late 1990s, the Internet and the 'New Economy' gave us a taste of things to come. Advertising could make many Internet initiatives viable, just like it has been the main funding behind radio and TV from their inception. Many people have a message they like to be heard. Many people would give a lot to be in the limelight for only a brief moment. There will be increasing sophistication in channelling the time and energy people are willing to put into promoting something, in ways that match other people's demand for information and services.

THE SHIFT FROM PROFITABILITY TO APPRECIATION

The keyword is appreciation. As global competition makes profit margins ever thinner, it becomes more attractive to focus on increase in the value of assets. Few resources are needed - if necessary, staff work from home and are being paid with stock options, while one can still raise cash by selling stock or lending against it.

Is the Internet a bubble that has burst? Is the 'New Economy' built on quicksand? Well, there are many independent organizations, companies, individuals, each with ideas, initiatives and innovations. Some may go down, some will rise, but as a whole, they will grow. Intangible assets will continue to rise in comparison to the more traditional, tangible assets. Note also that even land is in some respects an intangible asset, as it hinges on affirmation by government which becomes increasingly indebted. By contrast, information, knowledge, ideas, contacts, creative talents, goodwill, name recognition, reputation, skills and experience, those are the more promising assets. Farms and factories are not! The farmer and the industrial worker may tell their sons that the 'New Economy' is a bubble, but the trends are that intangible assets will continue to outperform the more tangible assets, while appreciation is becoming more and more important as a measure of success compared with profitability.

Many companies have already recognized that appeciation can be achieved by providing free services. But some items and services still require payment. Now, remember that currency is issued and controlled by national governments. As globalisation in trade continues, the extra cost of currency conversion (from one national currency into another) becomes more important. Instead of money, trade will shift to using stock, i.e. shares in reputable companies that can be exchanged around the world and that appreciate in value. The key to make this work are stock exchanges in their literal meaning, facilitating stocks to be exchanged directly, without any of these stocks to be converted into currency first.

MORAL ISSUES

I'm not saying it will happen overnight, I'm just picturing directions in which things are heading. At the time of the Roman Empire, when someone suggested to abolish slavery, the response would be: "But who would do all the work?" Remember, slavery was still common in many places around the world not too long ago. In the days of Charles Dickes, boys used to clean chimneys for a small amount of money. When some people argued that child labor should be abolished, the response was: "But grown-ups don't fit into chimneys!" Right now, it may sound equally strange when I say that people should not be forced to do things they do not want to do. But today, many people are forced to work, just to pay the taxes on the basics of life. Abolition of forced labor may sound far-fetched, but just have a look at some of the trends.

More and more products and services are becoming abundantly available, at negligable cost. To a large extent, pricing is still based on scarcity that is artificially created by government and that will fade away as global competition increases. At some stage, the joint cost of making payments, administering ownership, financial management and accountancy, employing skilled and reliable people to ensure payments are made, etc, will exceed the profits for some products. Advertising, e.g. on the packaging, will become more attractive than asking a price per item. As items become more intangible, they can be distributed more easily over electronic networks than through retail outlets. The incremental cost of distributing an extra item over the Net is negligable. As shares appreciate, it will become easier to raise money by issuing new shares, than by reinvesting profits. Much employment you see around you is created by government and by corporations, organizations and institutions that feed on government. The gigantic bureacracy within education, taxation, police, courts, etc, is only one part of the jigsaw. You can add many other parts, such as the administration imposed on business by taxation.

WHY WORK, IF IT COSTS MONEY TO DO SO . .

Perhaps not everything will be free immediately. Some people will continue to demand the latest gadgets. They're willing to trade-in some of their time and work, in the sense of doing things they don't really like, in exchange for things they desperately want. Some people will choose to live in the past. In some respects, they will live within their self-created prison, surrounded by gadgets or old-fashioned items that need constant maintenance and human intervention. They may have to 'work', but they do so willingly. If they are happy with that, then why change that. But the point is that one will no longer have to work to enjoy a reasonable lifestyle.

The majority of people will realize that they will be able to do things they want to do, at least most of the time. Already now, it's just a minority of people who do paid work anyway, of which many really like what they do. Much of today's work will be obsolete within a decade, as machines, robots, devices, equipment, computers, networks, etc, can do things cheaper, safer, faster, more reliable, secure, efficiently, effectively, around the clock without holidays, training, sick leave, etc. Many people commute daily from their home to their place of work, to sit behind the same computer and telephone they have at home. They could easily do the same work at home, saving not only two hours of travel daily between home and work, but also the cost of transport, of the offices and other infrastructure. As time goes on, people will focus on activities that are more creative and they will easily be able to "make a living" that way, even in terms of old-fashioned economic standards.

WHAT'S NEW?

Much of the above is not new. Many have predicted that, with increasing use of machines and equipment, there will be less need for manual labor in future. But few people have looked at the impact of computers and IT on government. Essentially, government is one big administration, and if there's one thing computers are good in, it's to perform administrative tasks. In the process, computers will also calculate the economic cost of administration. The more the cost imposed by government is analysed, the more it will become clear that things don't add up, and the more the conclusion will be to take government out of the equation altogether.

IMAGINE THIS:

A future without money, without government, without its rules, laws, bureaucracy, courts, police, prisons, armies and other institutions that feed on government control. IMAGINE: FREEDOM!